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Exploring Strategies to Achieve the 2030 Health Plan’s Male Smoking Prevalence Target Using SimSmoke
J Korean Soc Res Nicotine Tob 2023; 14(4): 121-129
Published online December 30, 2023
© 2023 The Korean Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco.

Susan Park1, Hana Kim2, Sung-il Cho1,2*

1Institute of Health and Environment, Seoul National University, Seoul, 2Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea
Correspondence to: *議곗꽦씪
꽌슱븰援 蹂닿굔븰썝
E-mail: persontime@hotmail.com
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4085-1494
Received December 15, 2023; Revised December 26, 2023; Accepted December 26, 2023.
This is an Open-Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, dis-tribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
 Abstract
Background: The fifth Health Plan (HP) set a target of 25% male smoking prevalence; however, specific strategies for strengthening tobacco control policies are insufficient. Therefore, this study aimed to establish an action plan for strengthening tobacco control policies to achieve the goal of HP2030 using a simulation model.
Methods: The SimSmoke model was developed based on the discrete time Markov process. The model consisted of three computational parts, namely population estimation, smoking prevalence prediction, and policy effect application. The population and smoking prevalence predictions of SimSmoke model were validated by comparing these parameters from nationally representative surveys. The male smoking prevalence in 2030 was predicted under various scenarios of individual or comprehensive strengthening tobacco control policies.
Results: Strengthening nonprice policies alone was not sufficient to achieve HP2030 goals. The HP2030 target could be achieved if the cigarette price was annually increased by at least 30%, that is, by at least KRW 28,237 by 2030. Under the scenario of comprehensive policies, if the cigarette price was increased by 8,000 won or 10% annually (to increase the cigarette price to 8,769 won by 2030) along with nonprice policy strengthening, the male smoking prevalence was predicted to be below 25% by 2030.
Conclusion: To achieve the HP2030 goal, a systematic strengthening tobacco control policy should be established, and active efforts should be done to implement it. Especially, an aggressive and proactive increase in the tobacco prices is necessary to reduce the male smoking prevalence.
Keywords : Simulation model; Tobacco control; Cigarettes; Smoking prevalence
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